chris cottee, comment on "Planning Fallacy" by Elizer Yudkowsky
17/10/2010
Sounds Like Good Advice
[T]he "extreme programming" planning technique: you estimate work by chopping it up into tasks and figuring out how long they would take in "ideal days" (that is if everything goes perfectly) . Then you see how many "ideal days" worth of tasks you managed to deliver last month (for instance) and multiply your estimate by the ratio actual days/ideal days.
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